Myles Hollander Distinguished Lectureship
This lectureship will take place on Wednesday, October 25th at 11:00 a.m.
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FSU Announces Dr. Adrian Raftery as the 2023 Myles Hollander Distinguished Lecturer
The Department of Statistics at Florida State University is pleased to announce that Adrian Raftery, the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology and an adjunct professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington, is the 2023 Myles Hollander Distinguished Lecturer.
Raftery will present “Downscaled Probabilistic Climate Change Projections, with Application to Hot Days,” on October 25, 2023 at 11:00 a.m. on the campus of Florida State University. The live talk will also be accessible via Zoom.
About Dr. Adrian Raftery
Born in Dublin, Ireland, Adrian E. Raftery obtained a B.A. in Mathematics (1976) and an M.Sc. in Statistics and Operations Research (1977) at Trinity College Dublin. He obtained a doctorate in mathematical statistics in 1980 from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris, France. He was a lecturer in statistics at Trinity College Dublin from 1980 to 1986, and then joined the faculty in statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. He was the founding Director of the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences (1999-2009). His research focuses on Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, model-based clustering, inference for deterministic simulation models, and the development of new statistical methods for demography, sociology, and the environmental and health sciences.
Raftery has published over 200 articles, edited three volumes of the annual Sociological Methodology compilation, co-edited Statistics in the 21st Century (2002), and co-authored the text Model-based Clustering and Classication for Data Science, with Applications in R (2019). He is an elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and of the Sociological Research Association, and Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and elected member of the International Statistical Institute.
Lecture Abstract
The climate change projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on scenarios for future emissions, but these are not statistically based and do not have a full probabilistic interpretation. Instead, Raftery et al. (2017) and Liu and Raftery (2021) developed probabilistic forecasts for global average temperature change to 2100. I will describe a method for downscaling these to yield probabilistic long-term spatial forecasts of local average annual temperature change, combining the probabilistic global method with a pattern scaling approach. This yields a probability distribution for average temperature in any year and any place in the future. Finally, we ask, how common dangerously hot days are likely to be at any location by the end of the century, and develop a method for assessing its predictive distribution. We find, for example, that exposure to dangerous heat levels is likely to increase by factors of 3-10 in many parts of the midlatitudes.
The Myles Hollander Distinguished Lectureship is sponsored by:
About the Lectureship
The Myles Hollander Distinguished Lectureship was established by Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor and statistics professor emeritus at Florida State University Myles Hollander, in appreciation of the university, its statistics department, and the statistics profession. The annual lectureship recognizes an internationally renowned leader and pioneering researcher in statistics who has made a sustained impact on the field, and the lectures will feature topics spanning the breadth of statistics.
About Myles Hollander
Professor Emeritus Myles Hollander joined the FSU Department of Statistics in 1965 upon completion of his M.S. and Ph.D. in Statistics at Stanford University after earning his B.S. in Mathematics from Carnegie Institute of Technology. He made substantial and enduring research contributions to nonparametric statistics, reliability theory, survival analysis, biostatistics and probability theory, among other areas. Hollander co-authored textbooks on nonparametric statistics, biostatistics, and introductory statistics.
Hollander is Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. He served as editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory and Methods (1994-1996) after being editor-elect (1993-1994). In 2003, the American Statistical Association recognized him with the Gottfried E. Noether Senior Scholar Award for his excellence in theory, methodology, and applications in nonparametric statistics.
At FSU, Hollander served as statistics chair for nine years (1978-1981, 1999-2005). He received the Professorial Excellence Award in 1977, was named Distinguished Research Professor in 1996, and in 1998 was named Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor, the highest honor Florida State faculty bestow upon one of their own. He retired in 2007 after 42 years of service.
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