We study the problem of identifying shapes in point clouds that have been corrupted by clutter and observation noise. Taking an analysis-by-synthesis approach, we simulate high-probability configurations from models learnt from the training data to evaluate a given configuration. To facilitate simulations, we develop statistical models for sources of (nuisance) variability: (i) shape variations within classes, (ii) variability in sampling curves, (iii) pose variability, (iv) observation noise, and (v) points introduced by background clutter. The variability in sampling curves is represented by positive diffeomorphisms of a unit circle and we derive probability models on these functions using their square-root forms and the Fisher-Rao metric. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we simulate configurations using a joint prior on the shape-sample space and compare them to the data using a likelihood function. Average likelihoods of simulated configurations lead to estimates of posterior probabilities of different classes and, hence, Bayesian classification.